Oilers Slightly Favored Over Panthers In Stanley Cup Final Rematch

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LAS VEGAS (AP) - The Stanley Cup Final is so near being a tossup, Florida would likely be preferred if the Panthers had home-ice advantage.


But that edge comes from Edmonton, which largely explains why the Oilers are slight favorites to win the series, which begins Wednesday.


"However you want to look at this pie, you could make an argument that either team might be preferred," Caesars Sportsbook head of hockey Karry Shreeve said. "Home ice is certainly playing a part. You're simply playing the percentages. The team that wins Game 1 of the Stanley Cup, they go on to win approximately 75% of the time."


BetMGM Sportsbook lists the Oilers as -130 favorites to win Game 1 and take that essential 1-0 series lead. The sportsbook makes Edmonton as the -125 favorite to become the first Canadian group since Montreal in 1993 to raise the Stanley Cup.


Defending champ Florida, which beat Edmonton in seven games in 2015, is the +105 underdog.


BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini stated about 55% of the cash has actually can be found in on the Oilers.


Edmonton Oilers' Connor McDavid (97) talks to media during a news conference, Tuesday, June 3, 2025, in Edmonton, Alberta, ahead of Game 1 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup last series versus the Florida Panthers. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press via AP)


"I would anticipate that to probably continue," Cipollini stated. "I believe we'll probably take a little more Oilers cash even if of Connor McDavid, but this is a rematch. Florida won in 2015, so I believe we will end up getting an even forecast."


Hockey handicapper Alex B. Smith, who co-hosts The Ice Guys podcast, doesn't purchase the Oilers should be favored.


"You don't see rematches frequently in the Cup Final," Smith said. "When you do, you constantly ask yourself the apparent question: Are these two teams much better or even worse than they were in 2015? I 'd say Florida is a better variation of themselves from last year. Edmonton (is) a little worse than in 2015, especially when you take a look at no Zach Hyman available for this series. Connor Brown is returning for Game 1, but how healthy is he going to be?


"I provide the edges to Florida based off of they've been playing much better, sound defense. I think they're a tighter group than they were last year."


Edmonton's captain became the second skater and 6th player to be awarded the Conn Smythe Trophy as the playoffs MVP last season while playing on the losing group.


McDavid leads this postseason in scoring with 26 points, one ahead of colleague Leon Draisaitl, and is the +100 preferred at BetMGM to win the Conn Smythe, providing him an opportunity to make more history even if the Panthers win.


"Are they actually going to give McDavid back-to-back Conn Smythes in losing efforts?" Cipollini asked. "He is the favorite since of the points scored and there's currently a precedent that they might offer it to him here, however that's something to enjoy as the games get going. If there is a Florida gamer that isn't truly standing apart ... there is a real world where it might be him again in a losing effort."


Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner has long been seen as a weak point on the lineup, a credibility that appeared to be sealed when he was benched two games into the playoffs.


But Skinner is a significant factor Edmonton is still playing. He has allowed one or no objectives in five of his past 7 starts, three of them shutouts.


Another excellent run in the net could put Skinner, noted +3500 at BetMGM, in position to win the Conn Smythe.


"I would not have actually told you this was sustainable in the past," Smith said of Skinner's hot play. "Now, with one series left, it definitely is sustainable."


Florida is making its 3rd successive appearance in the Stanley Cup Final, another deep run in which tiredness could lastly capture up to the Panthers. Or they might just be on a heating unit having actually won 10 of their previous 11 playoff series.


Shreeve said the metrics indicate a Panthers champion and though either result would be fine with Caesars, a Florida triumph would be better.


"I wear ´ t hate where we ´ re at with this one," Shreeve stated. "In 2015 was a bit harder because more individuals liked Florida, however individuals are everything about this postseason, which I like."


Because this series apparently might go either way and Oklahoma City is greatly favored over Indiana in the NBA Finals, that could increase betting interest in the Stanley Cup Final.


"I think it helps the NBA is getting the less sexier matchup," Shreeve stated. "The more bettable series is going to be Edmonton-Florida. If things remain tight, it has a chance to go six or seven video games, which would help."


AP NHL playoffs: https://apnews.com/hub/stanley-cup and https://apnews.com/hub/nhl


Edmonton Oilers' Leon Draisaitl (29) and Connor McDavid (97) participate in practice, Tuesday, June 3, 2025, in Edmonton, Alberta, ahead of Game 1 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup last series against the Florida Panthers. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press via AP)


FILE - Florida Panthers forward Aleksander Barkov hoists the Stanley Cup after beating the Edmonton Oilers in Game 7 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup Final, Monday, June 24, 2024, in Sunrise, Fla. (Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press via AP, File)